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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.