A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
